Macro-socio-ecology-outline
Tuesday, June 23, 2015
- 1 ABSTRACT
- 2 THE NEED
- 2.0.1 Environmental impact
- 2.0.2 Developmental outcome
- 2.0.3 Development outcome per environmental impact
- 2.0.4 Where are the resources?
- 2.0.5 Making resources explicit:
- 2.0.6 Environmental, social and economic impacts of resource use
- 2.0.7 Net outcomes versus outcomes associated with consumption of resources gains and losses ass
- 2.0.8 Resource consumption elasticities of D, I, Ec
- 2.0.9 Elasticity of consumed resources to consumption balance
- 2.0.10 Elasticity of consumption balance
- 2.0.11 Key national response variables
- 3 BEYOND RESOURCE INTENSITY AND PRODUCTIVITY
- 4 MAIN RESEARCH QUESTIONS
- 5 LIMITATIONS OF THE MRIO APPROACH
- 6 COMPARISON OF THE MRIO APPROACH TO TMC AND TMR
- 7 DIFFERENTIATING MSE FROM OTHER FIELDS
- 8 HOW - THE TOOLBOX OF MACRO-SOCIO-ECOLOGY
- 9 REFERENCES
1 ABSTRACT
Increasing human pressure on the planet from population, extractive and consumptive activity leads to resource scarcity and risks of crossing so-called planetary boundaries putting the human specis, other species and the entire earth system at risk. Further, with increasing demand of both continuing economic and social development along with a good and healthy environment and resources for the future - the need for a macroscopic view on how human resource use relates to the state of environment, as well as social and economic outcomes is needed.
The socio-ecological approach considers human activities as embedded and interacting with the biosphere. Socio-ecological systems have historically been considered when humans interact with the environment in extractive activities, often in marine or forest ecosystems.
At the core of the socio-ecological systems approach are questions about the dynamics of how governance systems affects the way humans interact with the environment and what they get out of their interaction with the environment.
Socio-ecological approaches, however, have a history of having been applied largely to local dynamics and to simple systems that can be analyzed analytically. As such, the socio-ecological approach has not delivered a guiding framework for how society can co-evolve in the long-term from the global to the national and regional scale.
In parrallel, global, regional or national frameworks for looking at socio-ecological dynamics have been developed. However, they have rarely been phrased explicitly as such.
Here we provide an overall framework for what can be considered a macro-socio-ecology. We tie together classic socio-ecological research with recent large scale approaches of similar character. We outline main research questions for macro-socio-ecology, its main methodological toolbox, and its policy and governance relevance.
National
2 THE NEED
- Success of socio-ecology
- A strong micro-level foundation
- Recent foundational concepts
- Planetary boundaries
- Social foundation
- Doughnut economics
- A guiding national, regional and world map
- not a GPS that will tell you how to get to where you want
- To inspire discussions
- About what we use our resources for
- About the efficiency with which we use resources - environmental (extraction, transport), social, economic
- Plenty of data - fragile framework
- The national, regional and global level of organization
2.0.1 Environmental impact
\(I=PAT \Leftrightarrow I=PACT\)
2.0.2 Developmental outcome
\(D=PAE\)
2.0.3 Development outcome per environmental impact
\(\frac{D}{I} = \frac{PAE}{PAT} = \frac{E}{T}\)
\(\frac{D}{I} = \frac{PAE}{PACT} = \frac{E}{CT}\)
2.0.4 Where are the resources?
Implicit in \(C & T\)
2.0.5 Making resources explicit:
\(Resources, extracted: R_e, consumed: R_c, imported: R_i, exported: R_o\)
\(R_o + R_c = R_i + R_e\)
2.0.7 Net outcomes versus outcomes associated with consumption of resources gains and losses ass
2.0.8 Resource consumption elasticities of D, I, Ec
\(\log(var) = a + b * \log(R_c)\)
\(elasticity = \epsilon = b\)
Research question
Rank variables with regard to \(b\). Assume other model than linear?
Variables with high cross-country resource elasticities should be scrutinized for more in-depth analysis. E.g. outliers within continents or development stages with partiularly high or low resource use per sustainability outcome.
2.0.9 Elasticity of consumed resources to consumption balance
\(\log(var) = a + b * \log \left( R_{ci} \right) + c * \log \left( R_{ce} \right)\)
Where \(R_{ci}\) and \(R_{ce}\) are the resources consumed through imports and domestic extraction, respectively.
Assuming equal proportional contributions to export from extracted and imported resources
\(\log(var) = a + b * \log \left( R_i * \left(\frac {R_i}{R_c+R_o} \right) \right) + c * \log \left( R_e * \left(\frac{R_e}{R_c+R_o} \right) \right)\)
Assuming exports first by domestic resources, then by imported resources of vice versa
Needs to be filled in.
2.0.10 Elasticity of consumption balance
\(\log(var) = a + b * \log \left(\frac{\left( R_{ce} - R_{ci} \right)}{\left( R_{ce} + R_{ci} \right)}\right)\)
Where \(R_{ci}\) and \(R_{ce}\) are the resources consumed through imports and domestic extraction, respectively.
Assuming equal proportional contributions to export from extracted and imported resources
\(\log(var) = a + b * \log \left( \frac{\left( R_{e} - R_{i} \right)}{\left( R_{e} + R_{i} \right)} * \frac{\left( R_{c} \right)}{\left( R_{c} + R_{o} \right)} \right)\)
Assuming exports first by domestic resources, then by imported resources of vice versa
Needs to be filled in.
2.0.11 Key national response variables
2.0.11.2 Economic variables
personal income (median and inequality)
national - GDP per capita
2.0.11.3 Environmental variables
land use change (resource extraction)
- Extraction:
- Use hyde database and satellite images from 2000, 2005, 2010 to look at extraction efficiency. Take into account land use change
- Consumption:
- Moran, D., M. Lenzen, K. Kanemoto, A. Geschke (2013) Does ecologically unequal exchange occur? Ecological Economics (89). doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2013.02.013
Rain-fed arable land converted to cropland (OXFAM South Africa report)
Consumption of land-use change (ha; OXFAM UK report)
- United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)-based per capita UK boundary: 0.2 ha/capita. 0.7 ha/capita, exceeding boundary by 250% (UK 2007).
- Extraction:
biodiversity loss
Extraction:
- National biodiversity index - red list index - living planet index
- Consumption
- Biodiversity threats embodied in trade (Lenzen et al. 2012).
Extinction rate (number of species per million species per year) (Rockstrom et al. 2009)
Endangered ecosystems (OXFAM, South Africa report)
UK Farmland Birds Index (OXFAM UK report)
effort indicator variables
- Protected area (1990-2009)
- Proportion Marine Protected Areas_TS_2010.xls
- Proportion Terrestrial Protected Areas_TS_2010.xls
- ProtectedAreas_Proportion_All.xls
state indicator variables
- Forested area
- ForestTimeSeries_2010.xls
climate change (resource consumption - not yet measured)
Consumption:
Consumption of CO2 (MtCO2) (OXFAM UK report)
freshwater use (resource consumption or extraction)
- Consumption:
- Lenzen, M., Moran, D., Bhaduri, A., Kanemoto, K., Bekchanov, M., Geschke, A., Foran, B. (2013) International Trade of Scarce Water. Ecological Economics 94, pp78-85. doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2013.06.018
Extraction / DMC
Available freshwater consumed (OXFAM, South Africa report)
Consumption of freshwater by humans (km3/yr) (OXFAM, South Africa report)
- Consumption:
nitrogen and phosphorous cycles/emission (resource consumption/was)
- Extraction:
- Could look at emissions from agriculture and aquaculture.
- Consumption:
- Needs to be conducted in an MRIO framework.
Amount N2 removed from atmosphere for human use (Mt/yr) (Rockstrom et al. 2009)
Nitrogen application rate (OXFAM South Africa report)
Phosphorous flowing into oceans (PMt/yr) (Rockstrom et al. 2009)
Total P concentration in dams (P mg/l) (OXFAM South Africa report)
Phosphorous loads in UK rivers (OXFAM UK report)
- Poor/bad loads of phosphorous in rivers. 11% of UK river testing sites classified as having poor or bad loads (UK 2013).
UNEP variables (2002-2008)
- Fertilizer area intensities
- Fertilizers_Nitrogen time series_updated.xls
- Fertilizers_Phosphate time series_updated.xls
- Fertilizers_Potash time series_updated.xls
- Fertilizer area intensities
- Extraction:
ocean accidification
- ??? hard to measure due to mixing of ocean and ocean and atmosphere - and what are the resources consumed ???
chemical pollution
??? industry emissions - public health - but what are the resources consumed ???
Not defined (Rockstrom et al. 2009; South Africa, OXFAM South Africa report)
Chemical quality of UK rivers (UK OXFAM report)
- Failure to achieve classifi-cation of good chemical quality. 20% of rivers fail to achieve good chemical quality (England 2009).
amospheric aerosol loading
- ??? industry emissions - but what are the consumed resosurces ???
- Overall particulate concentration in the atmosphere (Global)
ozone depletion
- Ozone concentration (Dobson units) (South Africa, OXFAM South Africa report)
- Ozone-depleting substances (ODS) (OXFAM UK report)
- Consumptive use of ODS. Zero emissions of ODS. Boundary not exceeded.
- Annual consumption of HCFCs (Rockstrom et al. 2009)
- ??? measure CFC emissions, but what are the resources ???
Air pollution
Annual mean PM10 concentration in ug/m3 (South Africa, OXFAM South Africa report)
Particulate concentration (PM10; OXFAM UK report)
Overall particulate concentration in the atmosphere (Rockstrom et al. 2009)
Ocean health
% of fish stocks harvested sustainably by UK vessels (UK OXFAM report)
*100% of fishing classified as sustainably harvested. 64% of UK fish harvested unsustainably (UK 2012).
Freshwater use
- Consumption of freshwater by humans (km3/yr) (Rockstrom et al. 2009)
2.0.11.4 Material/energy use variables
- UNEP variables
- Commercial energy comsumption pere Capita
- Energy use per capita_c2.xls
- Commercial energy comsumption pere Capita
3 BEYOND RESOURCE INTENSITY AND PRODUCTIVITY
- which sustainability variables have a high resource elasticity
- which sustainability variables have a high resource elasticity to changes in the consumption balance in imports and exports?
- provide a multi-variate dashboard for resource influence on sustainability variables
- add multi-variate assessment of resource efficiency to suggested environmental and development metrics
4 MAIN RESEARCH QUESTIONS
- what do we use resources for
- social
- health
- well-being
- culture
- our relation to the environment
- our relation to the environment
- economic
- environmental
- social
- what is the impact of our socio-economic activity on the environment
- what is our relation to to the biosphere
5 LIMITATIONS OF THE MRIO APPROACH
From (Wiedmann et al. 2013)
“The two data sources used in this work are the global MRIO database Eora and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Global Material Flow Database.”
“S2.3. Methodological Limitations. Recent advances in global MRIO modeling (2, 12) now provide the means to analyze and monitor the MF of nations more reliably than before. However, the method is not without limitations. MRIO accounts are provided initially in monetary terms rather than physical terms. So-called”price errors" can be introduced where individual transactions occur with a different price (dollars per quantity) than average. Allocation errors can occur due to low sectoral or product resolution. For example, a kilogram of gold included in a broad category of materials (e.g., “ores”) allocated to a broad production sector (e.g., “metals and mining”) will not be traced to its final demand as accurately as if gold were differentiated as a distinct input category and the MRIO used distinguished, more specific “gold,” “precious metals,” or “nonferrous metals” sectors rather than a broad metals and mining sector. In this study, we differentiated 35 types of materials and the MRIO used between 25 and 510 industrial sectors per country (5). For countries with more raw material-producing sectors, the allocation of DE data are therefore more accurate than for countries where fewer such sectors are available. For example, if there is just one “aggregate” extraction sector, a part of the “building stone” material flow might be allocated to the chemical industry because some limestone (which is also extracted by the aggregate"
“The limited resolution of some national input-output tables also constrains the method’s ability in addressing issues around critical metals and resource security due to the facts that (i) many of the critical metals are”specialty metals," which are use for very specific applications that cannot be easily represented by flows between aggregate sectors/products, and (ii) resource security roblems often arise from the presence of mono- or oligopoly structures within a sector. This is an area where hybrid approaches can be very useful. Here, input-output analysis (IOA) is combined with elements from process-based life cycle assessment (LCA) methods, such as those applied by Schoer et al. (13) in a study of the raw material consumption (RMC) of the European Union (EU). The hybrid method takes advantage of truncation-free enumeration of supply chains via IOA and productspecific detail via LCA (14-16). The current framework provides an important first step toward understanding potential risks associated with the global resource supply chain. More detailed information can be added targeting the hotspots identified through a hybrid approach, where process-specific information and aggregate product-level information are integrated. More general elaborations on the uncertainty of"
6 COMPARISON OF THE MRIO APPROACH TO TMC AND TMR
TMR - Total Material Requirement
TMC - Total Materical Consumption
From (Wiedmann et al. 2013)
- “To calculate TMC and TMR, material intensity factors of imports and exports are derived from simplified life cycle inventories (4, 25). A drawback of this LCA factor method is that”that the ecological rucksack of a good which is passing more than one border in one or different process stages is counted more than one time within the volume" (4). This double-counting problem does not occur inMF calculations based on IOA because DE volumes are merely reallocated from production to consumption in a mutually exclusive and collectively comprehensive way. A further complication of the factor method used in TMC/TMR calculations is that coefficients of indirect material flows of imports and exports are mostly derived from specific production systems, such as Germany or the EU (25).“”
7 DIFFERENTIATING MSE FROM OTHER FIELDS
- Related to global sustainability studies and sustainability science
- Related to socio-ecology
- Related to macroecology
- Related to macroeconomics
8 HOW - THE TOOLBOX OF MACRO-SOCIO-ECOLOGY
- Cross-country comparisons
- Linking earth system science to social dimensions
- Development of methods to study teleconnected socio-ecologicla dynamics
- Composite indicators such as Genuine Progress Indicator
- Scenario?
8.1 THE CORE
Is the core of macro-socio-ecology relating resource consumption to social outcomes and environmental impacts?
9 REFERENCES
The following literature was cited
Wiedmann, Thomas O, Heinz Schandl, Manfred Lenzen, Daniel Moran, Sangwon Suh, James West, and Keiichiro Kanemoto. 2013. “The material footprint of nations.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, September. doi:10.1073/pnas.1220362110.
2.0.11.1 Social variables
Raworth variables
basic services
energy supply
Households without access to electricity (Raworth 2012, OXFAM South Africa report, Development Indicators 2012, Household Survey 2012, 2013)
Population lacking access to clean cooking facilities (OXFAM South Africa report, Development Indicators 2012, Household Survey 2012, 2013)
Fuel poverty - 10% or more of income required to be spent on all energy (OXFAM UK report)
housing
Households without formal dwellings (OXFAM South Africa report, Development Indicators 2012, Household Survey 2012, 2013)
Overcrowding (OXFAM UK report)
sanitation
Population without access to improved sanitation (Raworth 2012)
Households without a toilet or ventilated pit latrine (OXFAM South Africa report, Development Indicators 2012, Household Survey 2012, 2013)
water security / supply
Population without access to an improved drinking water source (Raworth 2012)
Households without access to piped water within 200m (>= Reconstruction and Development Programme standard; OXFAM South Africa report, Development Indicators 2012, Household Survey 2012, 2013)
livelihoods
income
Population living below the upper national poverty line (R577/month in 2011 Rand; OXFAM South Africa report, Development Indicators 2012, Household Survey 2012, 2013)
Population living below $1.25 (PPP) per day (Raworth 2012)
Households below 60% average income - after housing costs (HBAI-AHC; OXFAM UK report)
National level - GINI coefficient (e.g. from World Bank, estimates from 1980 to 2013).
jobs - employment
Broad unofficial unemployment rate (adults aged 15-64 available to work; OXFAM South Africa report, Development Indicators 2012, Household Survey 2012, 2013)
Labour force not employed in decent work (Raworth 2012)
People lacking satisfying work (OXFAM UK report)
living standards
food security / supply - MDGs
Households without adequate food (OXFAM South Africa report, Development Indicators 2012, Household Survey 2012, 2013)
Population undernourished (Raworth 2012)
Adequate diet (as defined by PSE: UK; OXFAM UK report)
household goods
safety
Households who feel unsafe walking alone in their area at night (OXFAM South Africa report, Development Indicators 2012, Household Survey 2012, 2013)
CoQ variables
4.9.2 ciri_disap Disappearance (1981-2011). Disappearances are cases in which people have disappeared, political motivation appears likely, and the victims have not been found. Knowledge of the whereabouts of the disappeared is, by de nition ,not public knowledge. However, while there is typically no way of knowing where victims are, it is typically known by whom they were taken and under what circumstances. A score of 0 indicates that disappearances have occurred frequently in a given year; a score of 1 indicates that disappearances occasionally occurred; and a score of 2 indicates that disappearances did not occur in a given year.
4.9.8 ciri_kill Extrajudicial Killing (1981-2011). Extrajudicial killings are killings by government o cials without due process of law. They include murders by private groups if instigated by government. These killings may result from the deliberate, illegal, and excessive use of lethal force by the police, security forces, or other agents of the state whether against criminal suspects, detainees, prisoners, or others. A score of 0 indicates that extrajudicial killings were practiced frequently in a given year; a score of 1 indicates that extrajudicial killings were practiced occasionally; and a score of 2 indicates that such killings did not occur in a given year.
4.9.10 ciri_physint Physical Integrity Rights Index (1981-2011). This is an additive index constructed from the Torture, Extrajudicial Killing, Political Imprisonment, and Disappearance indicators. It ranges from 0 (no government respect for these four rights) to 8 (full government respect for these four rights).
4.9.14 ciri_tort Torture (1981-2011). Torture refers to the purposeful in icting of extreme pain, whether mental or physical, by government o cials or by private individuals at the instigation of government o cials. Torture includes the use of physical and other force by police and prison guards that is cruel, inhuman, or degrading. This also includes deaths in custody due to negligence by government o cials. A score of 0 indicates that torture was practiced frequently in a given year; a score of 1 indicates that torture was practiced occasionally; and a score of 2 indicates that torture did not occur in a given year.
public goods
education (coverage) - MDGs
Adults without more than seven years of schooling (adult illiteracy; OXFAM South Africa report, Development Indicators 2012, Household Survey 2012, 2013)
Children not enrolled in primary school (Raworth 2012)
Children enrolled in tertiary education (Raworth 2012)
Illiteracy among 15-24-year-olds (Raworth 2012)
Adults lacking any formal qualifications (UK OXFAM report)
CoQ variables
health - public health variables, including Millennium Development Goals
Infant immunisation coverage (OXFAM South Africa report, Development Indicators 2012, Household Survey 2012, 2013)
Population estimated to be without regular access to essential medicines (Raworth 2012)
Physical health: Years of healthy life expectancy (HLE; OXFAM UK report)
Mental health: Anxiety levels (OXFAM UK report)
voice - governance variables?
People who do not feel free to say what they think (OXFAM South Africa report, Development Indicators 2012, Household Survey 2012, 2013)
Not defined (Raworth 2012)
CoQ variables
4.9.1 ciri_assn Freedom of Assembly and Association (1981-2011). It is an internationally recognized right of citizens to assemble freely and to associate with other persons in political parties, trade unions, cultural organizations, or other special-interest groups. This variable indicates the extent to which the freedoms of assembly and association are subject to actual governmental limitations or restrictions (as opposed to strictly legal protections). A score of 0 indicates that citizens’ rights to freedom of assembly or association were severely restricted or denied completely to all citizens; a score of 1 indicates that these rights were limited for all citizens or severely restricted or denied for select groups; and a score of 2 indicates that these rights wer virtually unrestricted and freely enjoyed by practically all citizens in a given year.
4.9.4 ciri_empinx_new Empowerment Rights Index (New) (1981-2011). This is an additive index constructed from the Foreign Movement, Domestic Movement, Freedom of Speech, Freedom of Assembly and Association, Workers’ Rights, Electoral Self-Determination, and Freedom of Religion indicators. It ranges from 0 (no government respect for these seven rights) to 14 (full government respect for these seven rights).
4.9.5 ciri_empinx_old Empowerment Rights Index (Old) (1981-2011). This is an additive index constructed from the Freedom of Movement, Freedom of Speech, Workers’ Rights, Political Participation, and Freedom of Religion indicators. It ranges from 0 (no government respect for these ve rights) to 10 (full government respect for these ve rights). Note: Starting wit hthe 2007 coding, this variable was retired in favor of the newer index ciri_empinx_new.
4.9.11 ciri_polpris Political Imprisonment (1981-2011). Political imprisonment refers to the incarceration of people by government o cials because of their speech; their non-violent opposition to government policies or leaders; their religious beliefs; their non-violent religious practices including proselytizing; or their membership in a group, including an ethnic or racial group. A score of 0 indicates that there were many people imprisoned because of their religious, political, or other beliefs in a given year; a score of 1 indicates that a few people were imprisoned; and a score of 2 indicates that no persons were imprisoned for any of the above reasons in a given year.
4.9.13 ciri_speech Freedom of Speech (1981-2011). This variable indicates the extent to which freedoms of speech and press are aected by government censorship, including ownership of media outlets. Censorship is any form of restriction that is placed on freedom of the press, speech or expression. Expression may be in the form of art or music. A score of 0 indicates that government censorship of the media was complete; a score of 1 indicates that there was some government censorship of the media; and a score of 2 indicates that there was no government censorship of the media in a given year.
–
others
resilience - ????
social equity - how to measure?
Population living on less than the median income in countries with a Gini coefficient exceeding 0.35 (Raworth 2012)
gender equality - how to measure? - MDGs
Employment gap between women and men in waged work (excluding agriculture) (Raworth 2012)
Representation gap between women and men in national parliaments (Raworth 2012)
governance
Sense of personal political efficacy (OXFAM UK report)
59% of people feel they have no say in what the government does (GB 2012)
World Bank world wide governance indicators (1996-2013)
CoQ variables
“Contestation and Inclusiveness, (1950-2000) These are the two principal components of 13-15 indicators of democracy, including those compiled by Freedom House; Polity; Arthur Banks; Alvarez, Cheibub, Limongi, and Przeworski, as updated by Cheibub and Gandhi; Bollen; and Cingranelli and Richards. The dataset covers most countries in the world from 1950 through 2000. In an article in the Journal of Politics (July 2008), Angel Alvarez, Claudia Maldonado, and I argue that these principal components, which capture 75 percent of variation in the most commonly used democracy indicators, measure Robert Dahl’s two dimensions of polyarchy: contestation and inclusiveness. We recommend that scholars use the standardized versions of these components (CONTESTstd and INCLUSstd), which have been adjusted to be comparable from year to year.”
4.9.7 ciri_injud Independence of the Judiciary This variable indicates the extent to which the judiciary is independent of control from other sources, such as another branch of the government or the military. A score of 0 indicates “not independent”“, a score of 1 indicates”partially independent“” and a score of 2 indicates “generally independent”.
connectivity (???household goods???)
transport
No defined / identified (OXFAM UK report)
CoQ variables
crime (???safety???)
Risk of victimization (OXFAM UK report)
local environment
Access to the natural environment once per week (OXFAM UK report)
sense of support
People lacking satisfying work (UK OXFAM report)
–
Life Expectancy Index \(LEI = \frac{LE - 20}{85-20}\)
Education Index \(EI = \frac{MYSI + EYSI}{2}\)
2.1 Mean Years of Schooling Index \(MYSI = \frac{MY}{15}\) [6]
2.2 Expected Years of Schooling Index \(EYSI = \frac{EYS}{18}\) [7]
Finally, the HDI is the geometric mean of the previous three normalized indices: \(HDI = \sqrt[3]{LEI * EI * II}\).
LE: Life expectancy at birth MYS: Mean years of schooling (Years that a 25-year-old person or older has spent in schools) EYS: Expected years of schooling (Years that a 5-year-old child will spend with his education in his whole life) GNIpc: Gross national income at purchasing power parity per capita
sources for social variables
UK OXFAM REPORT
The Oxfam Humankind Index for Scotland (Oxfam).